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Sixth, as suggested by Ukrainian President-elect Poroshenko, Western countries would join in a new agreement that recognizes Ukraine’s security concerns and pledges to respect Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity. Obviously, the devils are in the details under each of these headings. Every item requires compromises, sometimes ugly compromises of aspirations and claims to which commitments have been made. Neither the newly elected president of Ukraine, nor his Western colleagues can accept Russia's annexation of Crimea-even though the fact cannot be reversed in the foreseeable future. Thus, any agreement that includes Russia will be vulnerable to criticism that it is letting the thief keep ill-gotten gains. Domestic political realities for Obama, German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande and Poroshenko preclude any deal that appears to impose conditions on Ukraine like military neutrality (shades of Yalta!). Putin will be sensitive about anything that could appear to betray ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine who responded to his rhetorical justification of annexation of Crimea by seizing power in Donetsk and Luhansk. Each of these leaders understands that politics is the art of the possible. Of course, Ukraine matters; Crimea matters. But for each of them, most especially Poroshenko, what matters more is what President Obama has famously called "nation building at home." Thus, despite this week’s escalation of violence, it is more likely than not the case that an agreement to settle the Ukrainian conflict will take shape in the weeks ahead.|As the Russian-Ukraine crisis continues to dominate headlines globally, different corners of the world are watching closely, waiting to see whether Russia will invade or de-escalate. One of these corners, which has received less attention, is the Arab world. Akin to other regions, it will be impacted in more ways than one. First, the Arab region continues to be a theater for great power competition, particularly between Russia and the United States. Second, it is home to some of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, whose energy production future is affected by rising tensions and the outcome of the crisis. In addition, skyrocketing oil prices in recent days have impacted financial markets in the Arab states of the Gulf, where stocks moved in different directions in reaction to “geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.” For energy importing countries such as Jordan and Lebanon, higher fuel prices are intrinsically linked to political anxiety at home. Third, many Arab countries will likely suffer food shortages if war erupts, as both Russia and the Ukraine are among their top sources of cereal imports.




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